Alexander Baunov

Senior Fellow
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Why Is Putin Upping the Ante in Ukraine?

    • 21.09.2022
    Rapidly unfolding events in Russia are effectively transforming the conflict in Ukraine from a “special operation” on someone else’s territory into a war to defend supposedly Russian land.
  • Under Gorbachev, Russia Found Its Voice

    • 06.09.2022
    Like Jean-Jacques Rousseau and the other proponents of the Enlightenment, Gorbachev operated on the principle that people, by nature, are good, and it is only society that makes them bad. If you give a person freedom, they will use it for good. The root of his mistakes lay in this faith. But it is the only faith that we should share.
  • Russia Will Miss the World Order Putin Upended

    • 25.07.2022
    In his fight to change the world order, Mr. Putin wasn’t afraid to destroy the existing one. Russia has staked everything on its size and might, banking on the prospect that attempts to exclude it from the world order will lead to that order’s collapse—or at least that the economic costs will force the West to adapt to Russian needs.
  • Putin’s Special Ops Mindset: What Next for Russia and Ukraine?

    • 23.02.2022
    The recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics is a chance for Russia to climb down from the peak of escalation with a concrete result, because retreating empty-handed would have been a ruinous outcome for the Kremlin’s prestige.
  • As Ukraine Escalation Peaks, What’s the Logic on Both Sides?

    • 16.02.2022
    Regardless of its desire to contain or punish Russia, the West will find it much easier to deal with a Russia that almost invaded Ukraine than a Russia that actually did so, and the hawks in Russia know this.
  • The West Has Responded to Russia’s Ultimatum. Is It Enough?

    • 01.02.2022
    In its negotiations with the West, Russia is behaving not like a country preparing to wage war, but like a country that, if necessary, can afford to do so.
  • Will the Crisis in Kazakhstan Signal Change in Its Foreign Policy?

    • 11.01.2022
    The protests in Kazakhstan are social, anti-authoritarian, and anti-nepotism, but they are not anti-Russian. That may change as a result of the authorities receiving military assistance from Moscow, the former imperial capital.
  • In Putin's Russia, the Past Is Never Past

    • 20.12.2021
    Their motivation is quite simple: Too much light on past repression, the Kremlin fears, could lead Russians to question the government’s present-day activities, including the jailing of opposition politicians, repression of civil society, and harsh new laws against independent media and NGOs.
  • In Putin’s Russia, the Past Is Never Past

    • 20.12.2021
    At the Russian Supreme Court in Moscow, the country’s oldest nongovernmental and best-known human rights organization—Memorial—is fighting for its life. State prosecutors have brought a case to close it down, alleging violations of a controversial law regulating the work of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in Russia. But the verdict, which could come as early as Dec. 28, will decide much more than the fate of Memorial, which documents the crimes of the Soviet regime and commemorates the regime’s victims. At stake is an even bigger question: Who in today’s Russia has control over the past?
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