Maxim Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Before joining Carnegie in 2015, Samorukov worked for the independent news website Slon.ru for five years. He started as a correspondent and then became an editor and international columnist, covering topics including Russian foreign policy, Central Eastern Europe and its relations with Russia, Balkans, and the challenges of transitioning to democracy.
A recent poll showed that 46 percent of Serbs believe that their country should stay neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war, confirming that a balancing act appears to be the least costly strategy for the Serbian government.
Neither the better morale and superior technology of the Ukrainians nor the lack of equipment, training, and motivation of freshly drafted Russians have prevented Russia from achieving its interim military aims at a relatively modest political cost.
Russia’s international reputation is already in tatters. The last thing it needs now is another humiliating blow that would expose how little sway it actually has over Balkan affairs as soon as its priorities diverge from those of its associates.
The war has left Belarus in a predicament, which boils down to depending on Russia for everything without enjoying the advantages of being part of Russia. In combination with the simmering domestic crisis, it leaves ever fewer incentives for the ruling nomenklatura and wider society to value the current Belarusian statehood.
Having wantonly destroyed so many economic ties—as well as goodwill—with Bulgaria in just a few months, Moscow has no chance of making any significant comeback, regardless of the composition of the next Bulgarian government.
Serbia plays for time in the hope that its ties with Russia will be cut indirectly, as an inevitable by-product of the EU’s actions and regardless of Belgrade’s position.
Putin wants Biden to finally face up to an unpleasant dilemma. The message is simple: Washington needs to brace itself for its partner Ukraine to be soundly defeated militarily in what would be an especially humiliating re-run of recent events in Afghanistan. Or it can back down and reach a compromise with Moscow over Ukraine.
Few international issues generate more conflicting interpretations than the military cooperation between Belarus and Russia. Alternating between secretive deals and acrimonious disputes, this bumpy relationship regularly puzzles even close observers. At times, the two countries’ dealings are so confusing that the very same arrangements may be seen as either a major boost or a severe blow to Belarusian sovereignty, depending on the viewpoint of the beholder.
