Tatiana Mitrova

The Russian economy is hardly likely to collapse as a result of the decline in oil revenues. What the decline certainly will impact is Russia’s development and long-term investment in new projects. In a decade, the energy superpower status Russia had claimed will be firmly in the past.

In theory, climate change and green energy are areas in which there is scope for joint international projects, new investment, and the transfer of green technology to Russia. Yet drastic differences in targets set and regulatory frameworks make such an optimistic scenario unlikely.

The Republican and Democratic candidates have fundamentally opposite views on developing the energy sector, but whoever wins—and for different reasons—it won't be good news for Russia’s oil and gas industry.

In coming months, the Russian leadership faces the equivalent of a 50 percent loss in expected energy export revenues. For the budget, this means a sharp fall in income of about 25 percent, just as the public and business sectors have the greatest need for additional state support.

Don’t be misled by Western sanctions’ limited impact on Russia. In reality, they operate with an accumulating effect: the more time passes, the greater the potential technological backlog, financing gap, and negative consequences will be. In the long run, sanctions may jeopardize Russia’s oil and gas production volumes and the development of pipeline infrastructure, gradually squeezing the country out of foreign markets, limiting its export revenues, and undermining the stability of the Russian economy.