Russia’s North Caucasus is in the grip of a low-intensity civil war and Moscow’s current policy of building up Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has not succeeded in preventing the spread of violence.
The inability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to find any common ground in their conflict over Nagorno Karabakh undermines the chance of peace in the region and, without more constructive international engagement, increases the risk of outright war.
A revival of the Turkish-Armenian Protocols would benefit the entire region, but it will require increased effort to convince both the Turkish public and Azerbaijan to support the normalization process.
Diaspora Armenian politics are playing a significant role in holding up U.S. diplomatic nominations to the countries of the South Caucasus, which risks undermining U.S. engagement and influence throughout the region.
While there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian–Turkish Protocols will be ratified soon, both parties should take steps to rebuild confidence and affirm their faith in the process.
The Pacific island microstates of Nauru and Tuvalu have found an incentive to take sides in the efforts of Caucasian breakaway territories like South Ossetia and Abkhazia to gain international recognition of their sovereignty.
The current political and economic situation in the South Caucasus is partly the result of the misconceptions about the region that have been propagated by both outsiders and locals.
Narrow bilateralism is an abiding problem in regional policies in the South Caucasus, and it is only complicated by the multiple policy agendas of outside interests such as Russia or the United States.
Religious services held inside Turkey’s borders by Pontic Greeks are a sign of the breakthrough in Turkish-Greek relations and a similar initiative at an Armenian church inside Turkey would be another step toward the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia.