Two years since fighting broke out between Georgia and Russia, the situation in the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains deadlocked and the current western policy of strong rhetorical support for the Georgian position substitutes easy words for hard diplomatic work.
The international community cannot afford to let the unresolved dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh remain a low priority; a renewal of violence would impact not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Georgia, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
The bloodshed on the ceasefire line should focus minds and be a reminder that a new conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh would be catastrophic for everyone, not just Armenians and Azeris.
While Nagorno-Karabakh engages in the process of building a de facto state, hardening attitudes in Karabakh and Azerbaijan could lead to a war which would affect the entire South Caucasus, including Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
The position of EU special representative for the south Caucasus plays an important role in the potential transformation and development of the volatile region.
Armenia suspended the process of normalization with Turkey in April, dealing a blow to an agreement designed to open the closed Armenia–Turkey border after almost a century of hostility between the nations.
Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are deadlocked, with serious consequences not only for the nations involved in the conflict, but also for the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process.
Tensions between Georgia and Russia continue to simmer, in the aftermath of the five-day war of August 2008. Without disinterested help from the West, Georgian president Saakashvili’s rhetorical invocation of a Russian threat could all too easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Six months after the signing of protocols intended to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey and open the closed border between the two countries, the protocols are in danger of collapse.