Source: Carnegie
For Immediate Release: May 1, 2003
Contact: Carmen MacDougall, (202) 939-2319, cmacdougall@ceip.org
Paper Urges United States To Take Action To
Prevent Iranian Nuclear Proliferation
"Time is of the Essence," Writes George Perkovich
The removal of Saddam Hussein and a June deadline for an International Atomic
Energy Agency report on the Iranian nuclear fuel-cycle program make it imperative
for the United States to take steps to change Iran's calculations on acquiring
nuclear weapons. In "Dealing
with Iran's Nuclear Challenge," George Perkovich, vice president for
studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, calls for the immediate
convening of a Persian Gulf security dialogue, including the United States and
Iran, to begin fashioning regional measures to reduce Iranian interest in possessing
weapons of mass destruction.
Many observers believe that nonproliferation efforts have already failed in
Iran. This pessimistic view is self-defeating and self-fulfilling, Perkovich
suggests. The paper addresses the four major security threats that drive Iran's
demand for nuclear weapons, then demonstrates that nationalism underlies its
desire for the bomb. U.S. policy since the 1950s and especially recently, has
fueled, rather than calmed Iranian nationalism.
The United States can take steps to integrate Iran into the international political
economy, in return for Iran's eschewing nuclear weapons. For example, the United
States could stop blocking Iran's entry into the World Trade Organization and
remove sanctions and other inhibitions on U.S. investment and participation
in natural gas pipeline routes. These policy changes would create an offer that
Iranians from all factions would find difficult to refuse. This, in turn, would
liberate Iranian progressives to engage with Americans.
"Even if it is only partially successful, the effort…will augment
regional stability," Perkovich concludes. Depending on its findings, the
IAEA report in June could intensify the drama over whether and how Iran, the
United States, and the IAEA should respond to Iran's nuclear program. This drama
"will be easier to manage if the Iranian people and competing leadership
factions do not uniformly see the nuclear issue as part of a U.S. 'axis of evil'
campaign, a predicate for possibly attacking Iran…. The U.S. should make
some of the positive unilateral gestures...before a nuclear crisis erupts."
To read the paper, visit Carnegie's nonproliferation news and resources site,
www.proliferationnews.org,
and click on the link in the right column.
George Perkovich
has worked on nuclear proliferation issues for 20 years. He has traveled to
Iran twice, and interacted with Iranian analysts and officials on these issues
since 1993. He wrote India's Nuclear Bomb, an award-winning history of India's
nuclear weapon program.
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