Dear Friends,
It was a pleasure testifying recently before the Helsinki Commission on the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian War. This anniversary reminds us that ending wars requires an adept mix of coercion, willingness to engage adversaries as well as allies, and managed expectations. It is also a reminder of how different the world is today, when America faces challenges from other major powers and operates with so much less room for maneuver.
I'm delighted that the Statecraft team has been keeping up the pace with a range of analyses that tackle everything from big strategic challenges to how to strengthen the tools of U.S. foreign policy. Most recently:
- In a seminal paper on the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Afreen Akhter argues Washington's cautious approach to development finance is ill-suited to an era of geopolitical competition. The United States must invest more ambitiously abroad to strengthen its industrial base and compete for global influence.
- Stephen Wertheim and I each confront a difficult reality: peace will not be a satisfying outcome for Ukraine and its partners.
- Stephen writes that the United States has a track record of failing to accept middling outcomes, hoping instead for a feel-good victory and backing down only at crushing defeat. It must learn to accept something in between.
- I argue that Ukraine's options for a favorable peace plan are likely to diminish if this attempt at a ceasefire collapses. If what emerges from current negotiations offers Ukraine a military capability and security guarantee — even a weak one — Ukraine should therefore accept it.
- Stephen writes that the United States has a track record of failing to accept middling outcomes, hoping instead for a feel-good victory and backing down only at crushing defeat. It must learn to accept something in between.
- Recent episodes of the Pivotal States podcast dig into vexing challenges for American statecraft:
- Promise and Peril in the U.S.-China AI Race: Colin Kahl breaks down hard questions at the intersection of artificial intelligence and strategic competition with China.
- Inside America's Strategic Rivalry with Iran: Dalia Dassa Kaye unpacks decades of U.S.-Iran hostility and assesses whether America's strategy of pressure has delivered results.
- Promise and Peril in the U.S.-China AI Race: Colin Kahl breaks down hard questions at the intersection of artificial intelligence and strategic competition with China.
- In Carnegie's Emissary, Christopher Shell reflects on his recent field research in Cap-Haitien, Haiti. His takeaway? The most valuable contribution the United States can make to stabilizing Haiti is not an enlarged military footprint, but equipping Haitian institutions to manage their own security.
- On Carnegie Connects, Aaron David Miller sits down with Senator Chris Van Hollen for a wide-ranging conversation on the Trump administration, checks and balances in U.S. government today, and Congress's role in foreign affairs.
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As always, we do want your thoughts and feedback and look forward to continuing the conversation in the new year!
Best wishes,
Chris Chivvis
Senior Fellow and Director of the American Statecraft Program