Dear Friends,
Can America afford to pay a price for peace?
Our work this month has grappled with what it takes to secure, preserve, and broker peace— from the Middle East to Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Achieving it often demands tough compromises, discipline, and resistance to sentimentality.
As Trump and Xi meet this week, Stephen Wertheim argues they should take "bold action action to reduce the risk of war over Taiwan".
In Foreign Affairs, he lays out a proposal for new U.S.-China assurances.
The core bargain: Washington would affirm it will not support Taiwan's independence or rule out peaceful unification. In return, Beijing would renounce the use of force and ease its military intimidation of Taiwan.
"Exchanging assurances with China is perhaps the single most significant action that the United States can take right now to make great-power war less likely."
In Haaretz, Aaron David Miller and Lauren Morganbesser (our former junior fellow) argue that Trump's lack of sentimentality toward Netanyahu, and his control over domestic politics enabled him to push the Israeli Prime Minister toward a ceasefire deal.
For the first time in decades, a U.S. president showed its Israeli partner who the superpower was.
Now, however, strikes on Gaza have resumed.
"None of this peacemaking is self-implementing. Success will depend on a president who truly owns his Gaza initiative— pressing a tough-minded Israeli Prime Minister hard to see it through, and being prepared to impose real costs if he does not."
In The Guardian, I write that Trump's new sanctions on Russian oil and gas companies will not end the war in Ukraine anytime soon unless Western leaders adopt a more open negotiating position. This might mean a deal somewhat more favorable to Russia than the West would prefer.
"The US may still be the most powerful country in the world, but failing to heed the limits of its power makes it less successful abroad- and corrodes its politics at home."
Other Statecraft Highlights...
- Trump has recently signed new critical minerals agreements with two allies—Australia and Japan. Critical minerals supply chains are one of eight categories we analyze in our new report, Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances for Competition with China.
Read the report - Aaron continues to host the world's leading thinkers on foreign policy issues on Carnegie Connects. As the Trump administration weighs reopening dialogue with North Korea, he invited experts Jean H. Lee and Joel Wit to discuss America's statecraft toward Pyongyang.
Watch the conversation - In a new episode of Pivotal States, Hard Limits: Testing U.S. Power in Ukraine, I was delighted to speak with Tom Wright on the tough dilemmas at the core of U.S. strategy in Ukraine.
Watch the conversation
Warm regards,
Chris Chivvis
Senior Fellow and Director of the American Statecraft Program
OUR FAVORITES FROM YOU
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Shannon K. O'Neil in Foreign Affairs - The Caribbean Strikes and the Collapse of Legal Authority Oversight in U.S. Military Operations
Sarah Harrison and Mark Nevitt in Just Security - Are We Ready? The China Reckoning
James M. Lindsay with Rushi Doshi on The President's Inbox