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The United States will emerge from the financial crisis much sooner than China, even if Chinese growth rates have been or are currently higher than that of the U.S.
China’s President Xi Jinping recently toured the Central Asian republics, offering energy and transportation infrastructure contracts. This continues China’s strong push into a region formerly dominated by Moscow and courted off and on by Washington.
The need for global savings and investment will force China to rebalance. China cannot continue underconsuming while the United States and peripheral Europe cut back their overconsumption.
The apparent unanimity of viewpoints within China on cybersecurity suggests that this issue will remain a major source of tension and differences in the Sino-U.S. relationship.
China needs a more efficient urbanization process that allows cities to evolve organically. But this doesn’t mean China needs more cities.
China’s unbalanced growth is the result of a healthy urbanization process which has been good for the economy, and this process is likely to continue generating unbalanced growth for a while longer.
As China's economy rebalances over the coming decade, average growth of 3-4 percent is likely to be the upper limit on what Beijing can achieve.
China’s president and Japan’s prime minister may not meet at the G20 summit, but with tensions escalating in the East China Sea, they need to talk soon.
How Beijing responds to pressure to lower lending rates will be an important indicator of whether it is prioritizing short-term growth or the transition to a healthier economy in the medium-term.
Rather than suggesting that its growth model is failing, China’s macroeconomic imbalances show that it is following the same trajectory that allowed Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea to reach high-income status.