Economic Risk in Asia

    China's Economy in the Post-Crisis World

    Despite China's extraordinary recovery, the debate over its economic prospects has intensified as new questions have emerged about China's exit strategy and its relationship with the United States.

    Will Obama Find China "Guilty" Over Currency?

    If China allows its yuan to appreciate, it will reduce pressure on the Obama administration to officially label China a currency manipulator and would establish a more constructive atmosphere for future cooperation between the two nations.

    China is Misread by Bulls and Bears Alike

    While China may experience a painful financial contraction as it increases private consumption, even a dramatic slowdown of Chinese growth will not prevent China’s share of global GDP from rising.

    U.S.-China Trade Relations—The Next Dispute?

    Since China’s domestic consumption is unlikely to grow fast enough to adequately balance the rising savings rate in the United States, global trade tensions are going to continue to escalate until a long-term solution is reached.

    Boom or Bust for China’s Economy

    While China is likely to enjoy solid growth again this year, its policy solutions to achieve short-term economic objectives have made long-term rebalancing even more difficult.

    Who's the Boss?

    While China has adopted an increasingly tough stance in recent disputes with the United States, its rhetoric has not been matched by aggressive action, and fears about a new cold war are unfounded.

    Could There be a Trade War Between China and the West?

    As the U.S trade deficit becomes increasingly politicized in the face of high unemployment and a global contraction in demand, there is an increasing likelihood of trade tensions with net surplus countries, especially China.

    The Real Lessons from the Google-China Spat

    Google’s defiance of the Chinese government will likely remain a crucial moment in China’s relations with the West in general, and should be viewed as a lesson on China’s political calculations behind its policy toward Western companies.

    Never Short a Country with $2Trillion in Reserves?

    The idea that massive levels of foreign currency reserves are a guarantor of economic stability is based on a profound misunderstanding both of history and of the nature of reserves, which are almost totally useless in protecting large economies from domestic bubbles.

    Why Trade War is Very Likely to Break Out This Year

    The contraction in global demand set off by the financial crisis has led to escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, and a breakdown in trade will slow the global recovery and create hostility and mistrust between major economies whose cooperation is necessary to resolving important global problems.

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