Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In four key regions—East Asia, the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, and Latin America—a combination of factors has created a new, fluid alliance that could potentially oppose the U.S. and other democracies. In all four regions, countries that have flirted with democracy since 1989 have begun to turn their backs on it. And, in all four regions, authoritarian regimes have a new weapon: oil.
Thailand's political system has broken down, an insurgency in the south has exploded into warfare and the economy has begun to nosedive. What caused this about turn? The answer lies in Prime Minister Sinawatra’s economic policies, which benefited those close to him and political moves, which included undermining institutions and military action against a Muslim minority in Southern Thailand.
China has fostered this Chinese amnesia for the Cultural Revolution. Not addressing the Cultural Revolution could be dangerous. Without greater openness, including a public debate on China's history, the kind of "independent innovation" the Chinese government wants to bring about can never flourish.
Though Thailand has tried to crack down on child sex and other crimes by foreigners, even when the Thai police do make an arrest, they often cannot hold onto their man. In 2003 alone, Thai authorities fired 18 cops for their complicity in trafficking, and police often take cuts from brothels.
By the end of 2005, Timor seemed relatively stable, and appeared to have developed a vibrant civil society and a nascent democracy. Today the entire nation has collapsed into an orgy of communal violence. The reason is that Timor could never broaden its economic growth, very much created by the UN. The idea of Timor as a success story has vanished, providing a lesson for future UN operations.
An African child dies of malaria nearly every 30 seconds, and the disease is estimated to cost Africa as much as $12 billion in lost gross domestic product each year. The cost of providing the necessary drugs for the world's malaria sufferers is negligible by the standards of the rich world, yet leadership has been noticeably absent from Washington.
While China’s rising soft power could prove benign or even beneficial in some respects, it could prove disastrous for Southeast Asia—for democratization, for anticorruption initiatives, and for good governance.