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Fragile states may seem like a distant and abstract concern. They are not. They are at the center of much of today’s regional disorder and global upheaval.
State fragility will remain a central feature of the international landscape for the foreseeable future. The United States’ response, however, can and must evolve.
China’s economy is slowing, which could continue for years unless a sustainable growth path is established. However, the pervasive pessimism surrounding China’s prospects is overdone.
The status quo of the past several millennia is going to undergo a profound change.
Having all the world’s people linked to the internet can empower and educate them, but it can also expose them to new threats and potentially open the door to new kinds of exploitation and domination.
Internationalizing the renminbi would make sense as the outcome of a long-term process of opening up capital markets and liberalizing exchange and interest rates, but it should not be driving near-term policy choices that must respond to cyclical market shifts.
Despite failing to foresee the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, leaders in the field still fail to look for wisdom beyond economy’s bounds.
From Russia to your local gas station, the consequences of low fuel prices are clear. But the consequences of those consequences are less apparent.
The Internet’s promise of open access to independent and diverse sources of information is a reality mostly for the minority of humanity living in mature democracies.
The world is about to discover that the substantial and totally unexpected drop in the price of crude oil may be as disruptive as the shock of oil price hikes in 1974.