Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Egypt’s role in the Middle East is falling as perceptions grow that the former power is preoccupied with its own domestic affairs. The election cycle currently under way will help define the extent to which those perceptions become reality.
During the last two decades, Egypt has distanced itself from Africa and the countries of the Nile basin by de-prioritizing them within a foreign policy framework and limiting its economic, commercial, and cultural ties with them.
The popularity of Sayyid Qutb among some members of the Muslim Brotherhood may speak to a desire to pull the Brotherhood back from its broad social and political work and refocus its efforts on reforming society through a more elitist approach.
Opposition activity is heating up in Egypt as the country heads for parliamentary elections this fall and a presidential election in 2011. What ramifications will this activity have on the Egyptian political system?
Recognition by Egypt's leading Jihadists that violence has failed to achieve political change and in fact has been counterproductive has led them to a remarkable change of course.
Egypt is at a critical turning point. If the United States does not take a serious interest in promoting democratic reform in the country, Egypt is likely to slide backwards into increased authoritarianism.
The entire Egyptian political order is carefully structured so that all lines of authority lead to the president. The regime has retained its control over the political sphere even when, as a result of President Mubarak’s illness, it is no longer clear who is actually wielding power.
Despite the new political ferment in Egypt, engendered by the return of retired IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, major obstacles remain to the emergence of an opposition strong enough to compete seriously for parliamentary seats and for the presidency.
By scaling back its political engagement to focus on a traditional religious, educational, and social agenda, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leaving behind an even greater lack of political competition in the country.
Over the next year, Egypt will hold three important elections, none of which stand any chance of redistributing power in the country. Egypt needs long-term democratic reforms, and the United States can play an effective role in promoting those reforms.