Iran appears to be increasing its military presence in the Middle East, raising a lot of questions about just what its ambitions are.
Netanyahu’s speech to the Congress makes it harder for the administration to sell a nuclear deal in the United States.
Assad seems to be giving up on the reintegration of rebel-held Syria into the state apparatus. Thus, entrenching himself among the militias and what remains of his army, he has precious little left to offer anyone else—no carrot, only stick.
Failed talks on Iran’s nuclear program could lead to a managed irresolution, where the two sides fail to meet in the same place but also recognize that it is in the best interests of both parties to have the talks keep going.
Regional conflicts exacerbate the animosity and mistrust between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which in turn exacerbate the regional conflicts.
President Obama’s big legacy could be seen as empowering Tehran.
While the United States and Iran have shared numerous adversaries, such as the Soviet Union, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and now the Islamic Staet, the strategic enmity between the two countries has prevailed.
While Iranian president Hassan Rouhani represents the popular opinion of a population that wants to be integrated with the outside world, the main levers of power in Iran are all controlled by the office of the Supreme Leader.
If a nuclear deal with Iran is not reached within the next six months, Congress is intent on passing new sanctions.
Rapprochement with Iran or, at the minimum, a nuclear deal with Iran would be a significant part of Obama’s foreign policy legacy. The big question is whether Iran’s leadership is interested in that rapprochement.