Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Iranian protests in the past have always pitted the people against the regime. Demonstrations over the presidential election outcome are different because of the unprecedented fissures amongst the revolutionary elite themselves.
The Obama administration has wisely taken a cautious approach to reacting to the unrest in Iran and allegations of election fraud.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s election victory could pose an insurmountable challenge to the Obama administration’s engagement strategy, but Iran remains integral to critical foreign policy challenges.
The surprise announcement that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won outright the first round of Iran’s presidential election has been met with widespread allegations of fraud and domestic unrest.
A recent heated televised debate between Iran's two leading presidential candidates and accusations of corruption by President Ahmadinejad toward leading clerics, have called into question whether the incumbent still has the backing of Iran's conservative political establishment.
With both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi declaring victory in the first few hours into the election on Friday, the incumbent's future remains uncertain, even with the endorsement of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
This week's Iranian election has all the trappings of an American-style competition, with none of the results.
The costs of Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s economic mismanagement and foreign policy adventurism may compel the Islamic Republic to usher in a new era which focuses on competent management and economic growth. But if the last three decades are any guide corrections have usually tended to take place after two presidential terms are served, not one.
On June 12 Iranians will vote in the country’s tenth presidential election since 1979. Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be challenged in his bid for re-election by three well-known Iranian political figures.
The Middle East and North Africa have been less affected by the global economic crisis so far, allowing Middle Eastern governments to continue delaying the deep economic and governance reforms required for long-term economic growth in the region.