Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Egypt is at a critical turning point. If the United States does not take a serious interest in promoting democratic reform in the country, Egypt is likely to slide backwards into increased authoritarianism.
The entire Egyptian political order is carefully structured so that all lines of authority lead to the president. The regime has retained its control over the political sphere even when, as a result of President Mubarak’s illness, it is no longer clear who is actually wielding power.
Despite the new political ferment in Egypt, engendered by the return of retired IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, major obstacles remain to the emergence of an opposition strong enough to compete seriously for parliamentary seats and for the presidency.
By scaling back its political engagement to focus on a traditional religious, educational, and social agenda, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leaving behind an even greater lack of political competition in the country.
Over the next year, Egypt will hold three important elections, none of which stand any chance of redistributing power in the country. Egypt needs long-term democratic reforms, and the United States can play an effective role in promoting those reforms.
Since 2004, Egypt has experienced more than 1600 labor protests, which have dwarfed political protests in scale and consequence. What are the political ramifications of increased labor unrest? Are the labor movements a harbinger for a more active and mobilized Egyptian society?
The steady rise of sectarian tensions over the past few years in Egypt is the result of an indecisive state, an incendiary media, and a failure of civil institutions to stand up for the equal rights of all Egyptians.
Cyberspace is at the heart of the fight against terrorism, as terrorists increasingly use the Internet to keep in touch with other cells and spread propaganda, and governments use it to convince potential terrorist recruits to leave before committing violence against civilians.
The global aims of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb—an Algerian jihadi group—have been thwarted by the Algerian government’s more effective military strategy and the collapse of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
The Obama administration must engage in a new type of dialogue with the Middle East, one modeled after the process used to improve relations with the Soviet bloc, if it wants to have any chance of impacting political reform in the region.