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Egyptian political actors may gradually find ways to translate their seats at the table into real influence over outcomes, but it is difficult to see that process resulting in serious reform as long as political life is so polarized and atomized.
Both Islamists and secularists are wrong if they think they can build a new Egypt on their own. There is no way the country can be successful if only one party rules.
Egypt’s new rulers have to make a decision on whether they want an open democratic system. They can either have the Muslim Brotherhood on board or chose to crush them, and thus far they have been sending signals in both directions.
The most immediate concern for Egypt’s liberals and the U.S. government is the possibility of the Muslim Brotherhood abandoning politics and resorting to street violence if they are not reassured that their voices will be heard.
Many Egyptians consider the question of whether or not Morsi’s ousting was a military coup more a matter of moral judgment than terminology, but U.S. lawyers will have to figure out if recent events trigger a mandatory cutoff of aid.
The demonstrations may be larger this time, but Egyptian society is far more divided than it was during the revolution two years ago. It is essential for the transition to be inclusive.
It would be wise for those who are now victorious in Egypt to remember that the issue is not only what the Brotherhood learns from the ousting of President Morsi; the issue is also what Islamists are taught.
Mundane procedural problems were the Achilles heel of the 2011 transition, and now the body that made all those mistakes, the Egyptian military high command, has delivered a new road map.
Regardless of the outcome of the confrontation in Egypt on June 30, the nation’s deep structural problems will remain.
The private sector and the government, in collaboration with civil society organizations, must work together to avert an economic crisis and promote growth, stability, and the consolidation of democracy in Egypt.