Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In this Carnegie Paper, "Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability," Julia Choucair argues that Jordan's stability is best maintained through political reform. She contends that the United States and Europe, for short to medium-term reasons, have shied away from urging Jordan to undertake further reform, which would be in everyone's long-term interests.
The debate over Iran's nuclear program has now been widened, with Iran feeling emboldened to compete with the United States for dominance in the Middle East as a whole. This competition has the potential for "tragedy" if the United States feels it must use military power against Iran.
The assassination of Lebanese industry minister Pierre Gemayel necessitates a balanced policy of moving ahead with the United Nations special tribunal on assassinations in Lebanon while also reducing conflict and instability through constructive and multilateral dialogue.
Recent electoral successes by Islamist parties throughout the Arab world have shown those movements to be viable political opposition to many undemocratic regimes. Most analyses examine those movements only within their individual domestic political environments. Yet equally important is the impact of broader, regional issues on domestic politics and the resulting tensions with ruling regimes.
Nathan Brown examines how Jordan’s Islamic movement gained political legitimacy, but repackaged its strong beliefs in legal organizations that have a broad and deep reach into Jordanian society. As a consequence, the Jordanian regime and Islamic movement now find themselves debating whether or not this peaceful model is sustainable, and if confrontation is inevitable.
Recent electoral successes by Islamist parties throughout the Arab world have shown those movements to be viable political opposition to many undemocratic regimes. Most analyses examine those movements only within their individual domestic political environments. Yet equally important is the impact of broader, regional issues on domestic politics and the resulting tensions with ruling regimes. But wars rarely proceed as expected, and no participant in this war got what it had bargained for.