Presenters: David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security and Jon Wolfsthal, Associate, Carnegie Non-Proliferation Project
On December 3, Pakistan announced that its armed forces along Kashmir's Line of Control (LoC) would immediately "observe maximum restraint in order to strengthen and stabilize the cease-fire." This was in response to an unprecedented Indian cease-fire against Kashmiri militants, which took effect on November 27. India says there has been a "recognizable reduction" in firing across the LoC, but by December 6, Indian troops had killed twelve suspected guerillas trying to cross the LoC, arguing that the cease-fire did not extend to infiltrators. Even as each side wondered about the motivations of the other, these developments have engendered cautious optimism about peace prospects in nuclear-armed South Asia, while demonstrating the many hurdles ahead.
Unless taken to an extreme, the particulars of a national candidate’s defense policy positions are not likely to swing voters one way or the other.
The schedule for the Navy's Area missile defense program faces significant delays, according to a recent Pentagon comptroller report. The November report damages the case of experts pushing for a rapid deployment of naval-based national missile defenses.
Rose Gottemoeller and Thomas Graham, Senior Associates at Carnegie Endowment, and Andrew Kuchins, Director of the Russian and Eurasian Program, discussed Russian geopolitics and nuclear security. The panel was moderated Thomas Carothers, Vice President of Studies. For video clips and transcripts, click here.
The United States today waived sanctions against Chinese entities for missile-related exports to Iran and Pakistan in exchange for a new commitment by China to establish formal and comprehensive missile-related export controls. China announced its intention to publish a formal missile-related export control list, including dual-use items with applications in ballistic missiles, and to require all Chinese entities to obtain an export control license for all controlled items.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on November 13 that the U.S. and Russia could slash their arsenals to 1,500 weapons by 2008. He also suggested that there is room for "wide-ranging cooperation in anti-missile defenses for theatres of military operation."
An effective Indian deterrent against Pakistan and China would require one hundred and fifty nuclear warheads, delivered by missiles or bombers, according to a key advisor to the Indian government on nuclear and strategic issues. Mr. K. Subrahmanyam, a leading member of the National Security Advisory Board, which authored India's Draft Nuclear Doctrine, argues that India should "project a credible deterrence," by working out strategies, policies and a command and control structure. He described India's Draft Nuclear Doctrine as a "most logical, most restrained and most economical" document.
Presentation at the College of William and Mary by Carnegie Senior Associate Joseph Cirincione