The risk of nuclear use is increasing, and not only as a result of politics. Changes in military doctrine and technology—especially in the context of growing multipolarity—also drive this risk.
Nuclear disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation policies are increasingly affected by declining regional security, increasing militarization of U.S. foreign policy, and changes to the global normative nuclear order.
The risks for a Trump-Kim summit remain high, and Trump’s notorious inconsistency and irritability cannot be dismissed.
As North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and ballistic missile capabilities mature, Washington should pursue a comprehensive and verified capping of Pyongyang’s nuclear program, pending total denuclearization at a later date.
John Bolton wants regime change in North Korea and Iran, and he’ll do whatever it takes to get it.
It would be a mistake to assume that China’s future nuclear power development will continue on the same trajectory as during the last twenty years.
Seoul wants to try diplomacy with Pyongyang. Where does that leave Washington?
Ellsberg’s The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner is an easy, fast-paced read about nuclear practices relevant today, especially in the newest nuclear-armed states—India, Pakistan and North Korea.
A “Gold Standard” nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia may not be the best way for the United States to balance against Russia and China or restore its influence over nonproliferation policy in the Middle East.
In the 55 years since unseen nuclear bullets were dodged in the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States’ technical capabilities to gather intelligence have improved breathtakingly. Still, it is extremely difficult to know how foreign adversaries perceive their situation and calculate their moves.