The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces a critical test this November when it will issue its latest report on Iran's nuclear activities. A condemning report by the IAEA could prompt Iran to end all cooperation with the IAEA. Yet a falsely reassuring report could damage the credibility of the nonproliferation regime.
Judging by the visit of Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates to Moscow last week, the United States and Russia are in a race to dismantle the treaty system that has regulated their security relationship for decades. The Russian side eagerly reminded U.S. counterparts of their promise to cease implementing the Conventional Forces in Europe in early December if NATO did not proceed to ratify the adapted CFE Treaty.
Last week, the six-party negotiations (which include the United States, China, Russia, Japan, North Korea and South Korea) agreed on a second phase of a plan to denuclearize North Korea that has under discussion since 2005. This plan goes further than the agreed framework by requiring "disablement" of North Korean plutonium production facilities, but is troublingly silent on a few things.
The Iraq war’s monopoly on America’s political energy has now stretched to five years. During what is an eon in a time of fast-moving global change, a number of international security problems have grown into full-blown crises. Unless a major effort is made to reverse current trends, the fissures now spreading across the global nonproliferation regime could easily become the worst of these crises.
A report from the IAEA laying out a timeline for Iran to resolve outstanding issues related to its nuclear program may give Iran as much as eight months of continued centrifuge installation and operation.
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The White House reached a deal late last month to provide India with U.S. civil nuclear cooperation, reversing a ban on such cooperation that had been in place since 1978. After India's first nuclear test in 1974, the United States decided to halt nuclear exports to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and persuaded the rest of the world's nuclear suppliers to make this a global rule in 1992. India, Israel and Pakistan refused to sign the treaty and instead produced nuclear arsenals. The Bush administration now wants to remove the longstanding restrictions on India, and to persuade the rest of the world to do the same.
The United States and India announced the completion of negotiations on the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal on July 27. Carnegie Senior Associate Ashley J. Tellis has been widely recognized as one of the core individuals who made the U.S.-India nuclear deal possible. A recent Indian Express article by Pranab Dhal Samanta discusses the individuals and crucial moments that provided the political climate for the two countries to reach an agreement.
Discussion with Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, at the 2007 Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference.
2007 Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, which took place on Monday, June 25 – Tuesday 26, 2007 at the Ronald Reagan International Trade Center in Washington, D.C.