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Iranian leaders appear to have recognized that by staying within the rules they can acquire capabilities sufficient to impress their own people and intimidate their neighbors, without inviting tough international sanctions or military attack. The National Intelligence Estimate, in a sense, says that Iran is playing the game so well that stopping it may not be possible within the rules.
Presidents George W. Bush and Nicolas Sarkozy have called for greater coercive measures against Tehran for its continued uranium-enrichment activities in defiance of legally binding UNSC resolutions. Unless Iran faces stricter sanctions or other clear costs for pursuing its nuclear program, Tehran will not change its nuclear course and implement the requirements of UNSC Resolutions 1737 and 1747.
Increasing pressure from the UN Security Council on Iran's nuclear program, while making clear the benefits to Iran of engaging in negotiations, is the only effective strategy to resolving the Iran nuclear dispute diplomatically.
The most important strategic foreign policy issue facing the next President and Congress will be how to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons. For almost four decades the world has been protected by a global agreement -- the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty -- which worked to keep the number of nuclear weapon states small. That agreement badly needs U.S. leadership.
The United States must alter its democracy promotion strategy, which has been unconstructive and counterproductive, and make clear that it has no intention of undermining Iran's territorial integrity. A move away from democracy promotion, however, should not signal indifference to human rights abuses.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces a critical test this November when it will issue its latest report on Iran's nuclear activities. A condemning report by the IAEA could prompt Iran to end all cooperation with the IAEA. Yet a falsely reassuring report could damage the credibility of the nonproliferation regime.
With world demand for oil mounting and oil prices so high it’s very difficult to isolate Iran financially these days. Sanctions against Iran will have more impact in Moscow, Beijing, and European capitals than in Tehran.