Publications

• Op-Ed

A Summit Scant Remembered

• Rose Gottemoeller
• April 28, 2006
• Moscow Times

What the 1996 Moscow nuclear summit did was begin to meld a highly effective focus on proliferation threats within the G8. By 2002, this produced a brand new Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction, launched at the Kananaskis G8 meeting in Canada.

• Testimony

U.S.-India Atomic Energy Cooperation: Strategic and Nonproliferation Implications

• Ashley J. Tellis
• April 26, 2006

• Proliferation Analysis

China, Russia, and Iran

• Jill Marie Parillo
• April 21, 2006

Stronger diplomatic action on Iran depends heavily on the policies of Russia and China. The actions that either country takes next should be understood in light of their threat perceptions, economic interests, and the strength of the U.S.-French-German coalition.

• Proliferation Analysis

Iran's Long Nuclear Road

• Caterina Dutto
• April 13, 2006

The best estimates indicate that Iran is 5-10 years away from the ability to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon. But there are major uncertainties with these estimates. One worst-case scenario could have Iran with a nuclear bomb at the end of 2009, but that assumes that Iran does not encounter any of the technical problems that typically plague such programs.

• Proliferation Analysis

The End of Neoconservatism

• Joseph Cirincione
• April 04, 2006

If Francis Fukuyama is right, the neoconservative movement is dying. Good riddance. Through their network within the Bush administration, these intellectuals wreaked havoc on American national security interests, ruined the international reputation of the country and drove up a staggering national debt.

• Op-Ed

Cirincione: Time For Clear Public Understanding of Iranian Threat

• Joseph Cirincione
• April 04, 2006
• Council on Foreign Relations Interview

Some in the U.S. administration have already made up their minds that they would like to launch a military strike against Iran, if the UN Security Council does not impose sanctions on Iran. This is a counterproductive move to the goal of enabling the Iranian people to choose their own government.

• Op-Ed

Fool Me Twice

• Joseph Cirincione
• March 27, 2006
• Foreign Policy

• Proliferation Analysis

Let’s Go to the Videotape

• Joseph Cirincione
• March 22, 2006

On March 20th, President George Bush said in Cleveland: “If I might correct a misperception, I don’t think we ever said, at least I know I didn’t say that there was a direct connection between September 11th and Saddam Hussein.”

To help judge the accuracy of this statement we reprint below a section from WMD in Iraq:  Evidence and Implications, by Joseph Cirincione, Jessica Mathews and George Perkovich (Carnegie Endowment, January 2004).  It begins with a selection of official statements on the connection, then examines the evidence supporting these statements before and after the invasion.  Since publication of the report the evidence that there was no operational connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq has only grown stronger.

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Administration Statements

Administration officials said that Iraq had operational ties to Al Qaeda, would give terrorists weapons of mass destruction to use against the United States, and implied that Saddam Hussein was linked to the September 11 attacks.

• “[T]here clearly are contacts between Al Qaeda and Iraq . . . there clearly is testimony that some of the contacts have been important contacts and that there’s a relationship here.” (National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, PBS “NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,” 25 September 2002)
• “Evidence from intelligence sources, secret communications, and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of Al Qaeda. Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own. Before September the 11th, many in the world believed that Saddam Hussein could be contained. But chemical agents, lethal viruses and shadowy terrorist networks are not easily contained. Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans—this time armed by Saddam Hussein. It would take one vial, one canister, one crate slipped into this country to bring a day of horror like none we have ever known.” (President Bush, State of the Union, 28 January 2003)
• “Saddam Hussein has longstanding, direct and continuing ties to terrorist networks. Senior members of Iraqi intelligence and Al Qaeda have met at least eight times since the early 1990s. Iraq has sent bomb-making and document forgery experts to work with al Qaeda. Iraq has also provided Al Qaeda with chemical and biological weapons training. And an Al Qaeda operative was sent to Iraq several times in the late 1990s for help in acquiring poisons and gases. We also know that Iraq is harboring a terrorist network headed by a senior Al Qaeda terrorist planner. This network runs a poison and explosive training camp in northeast Iraq, and many of its leaders are known to be in Baghdad.” (President Bush, Radio Address, 8 February 2003) (Read More)

• Proliferation Analysis

Resolving Iran

• James E. Doyle, Sara Kutchesfahani
• March 21, 2006

there is still a diplomatic opportunity that can resolve the nuclear crisis with Iran. The Iranians need a package of incentives to relinquish their nuclear program and it is really only America, and not the Europeans, that can offer Iran what it wants and needs. The time has come for a US-Iran rapprochement.

Time for a US/Iran Patch Up

• James E. Doyle, Sara Kutchesfahani
• March 21, 2006
• March 21