Edition

Proliferation News 2/13/25

IN THIS ISSUE: The October 7 Watershed in the Middle East, Israel likely to strike Iran in coming months, warns U.S. intelligence, IAEA head says military activity prevented Zaporizhzhia monitor rotation, Air Force has halted work on parts of its ICBM program, India and France plan small modular nuclear reactors, Connection challenge could hamper nuclear powered France's bid as AI hub

Published on February 13, 2025

Ariel Levite | Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The heinous Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, unlike frequent earlier encounters between Hamas and Israel, turned into a watershed moment for the Middle East. Not only did the terrorist attack draw Israel into a direct, intense, and prolonged military confrontation with Hamas—which Israel has tried hard to avoid for years—it has also quickly evolved into a conflict involving far larger swaths of the region and multiple actors, including extra-regional ones.

John Hudson, Michael Birnbaum and Ellen Nakashima | The Washington Post

Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months in a preemptive attack that would set back Tehran’s program by weeks or perhaps months but escalate tensions across the Middle East and renew the prospect of a wider regional conflagration, according to U.S. intelligence.

Reuters

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said intense military activity had prompted the cancellation on Wednesday of a rotation of a mission by monitors at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, did not apportion blame for the disruption, but said his agency's staff should not be subjected to such a situation.

Audrey Decker | Defense One

Work on the command and launch segments of the Air Force’s Sentinel ICBM program are on hold while service leaders formulate a plan to restructure the way-over-budget effort to replace its aging intercontinental ballistic missiles, service officials said Monday.

Nikita Yadav | BBC

India and France plan to work together on developing small modular nuclear reactors, India's foreign ministry said after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the country. Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of nuclear energy for "strengthening energy security" and transitioning towards a "low-carbon economy".

Forrest Crellin and Elizabeth Howcroft | Reuters

The time needed to connect power-hungry data centers to the electricity grid could blunt France's advantage using its abundant nuclear power to lure billions of dollars of investment into artificial intelligence, investors and experts said. Hosting a global summit on AI this week, French President Emmanuel Macron credited the country's reliable and clean nuclear power with helping attract more than 100 billion euros ($103.26 billion) in AI investments as Europe races to catch up with the United States.

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