Edition

Proliferation News 2/4/25

IN THIS ISSUE: Trump Set to Reimpose 'Maximum Pressure' on Iran, Aims to Drive Oil Exports to Zero, Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Weapon, U.S. Concludes, Russian Attacks Near Ukrainian Nuclear Infrastructure Heighten Scrutiny of Kyiv’s Preparedness, Russia Condemns Trump Missile Defence Shield Plan, Accuses US of Plotting to militarise Space, Southeast Asia Looks to Nuclear Power to Supercharge its Energy Transition, Trump Wants a Nuclear Deal. Can He Be the Ultimate Negotiator?

Published on February 4, 2025

Steve Holland | Reuters 

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday plans to restore his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran in an effort to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and drive its oil exports down to zero, a U.S. official said…Trump will sign a presidential memorandum that, among other things, orders the U.S. Treasury secretary to impose "maximum economic pressure" on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on those violating existing sanctions, the official said. As part of the maximum pressure effort, the Trump administration will implement a campaign "aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero," the official said.

David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes | New York Times

New intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program has convinced American officials that a secret team of the country’s scientists is exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon if Tehran’s leadership decides to race for a bomb, according to current and former American officials. The development comes even amid signals that Iran’s new president is actively seeking a negotiation with the Trump administration.

SAMYA KULLAB and HANNA ARHIROVA | Associated Press

“The switchyards that handle electrical routing from nuclear power plants are a vital component of Ukraine’s nuclear energy infrastructure — powering homes, schools, hospitals, and other critical civilian infrastructure. Given Ukraine’s heavy reliance on nuclear energy, military attacks on these switchyards would be devastating, severely impacting civilian life and undermining the resilience of the energy grid,” said Marcy R. Fowler, head of the office for research and analysis at Open Nuclear Network, a program of the U.S.-based NGO PAX sapiens that focuses on reducing nuclear risk.

Dmitry Antonov | Reuters 

Russia on Friday condemned an executive order by U.S. President Donald Trump to build a new missile defence shield, accusing the United States of trying to upset the global nuclear balance and pave the wave for military confrontation in space. Trump on Monday signed an order that "mandated a process to develop an ‘American Iron Dome,’" a next-generation U.S. missile defence shield against ballistic, hypersonic, cruise missile and other forms of aerial attack.

VICTORIA MILKO and ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL | Associated Press

Southeast Asia’s only nuclear power plant, completed four decades ago in Bataan, about 40 miles from the Philippine capital Manila, was built in the 1970s but left idle due to safety concerns and corruption. It has never produced a single watt of energy. Now the Philippines and other countries in fast-growing Southeast Asia are looking to develop nuclear energy in their quest for cleaner and more reliable energy. Nuclear energy is viewed by its proponents as a climate solution since reactors don’t emit the plant-warming greenhouses gases released by burning coal, gas or oil. Advances in technology have helped reduce the risks from radiation, making nuclear plants safer, cheaper to build and smaller.

Jon B. Wolfsthal | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Sadly, President Trump’s track record of actually negotiating nuclear agreements is poor. During his first term, Trump said he wanted to negotiate a nuclear deal with North Korea (he tried and failed), with Iran (he never tried and withdrew from an existing agreement), and with Russia and China at the same time (he failed at both). But this time around, Trump has a chance to prove his negotiating skills—but only if he does it the right way.


Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.