Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Last week, a group of 45 countries dealt a serious blow to the world's nuclear nonproliferation regime. Succumbing to enormous pressure exerted by President Bush and his administration, the Nuclear Suppliers Group agreed to allow nuclear trade once more with India – a country that has not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and tested nuclear weapons in 1974 and 1998.
On September 6, 2008, the Nuclear Suppliers Group decided to break a 16-year ban and allow nuclear trade with India. Now President Bush must prove to Congress that the proposed trade deal meets the requirements of the Hyde Act.
This analysis compares U.S. law, the draft U.S.-India nuclear cooperation agreement, the answers to the questions for the record and Indian official statements on the potential consequences of another Indian nuclear weapons test on U.S.-Indian nuclear cooperation. The answers to the questions for the record reveal gaps in U.S. and Indian interpretations.
The next U.S. president must pursue a balanced strategy toward Pakistan that simultaneously strengthens the civilian government—the best hope for Pakistan’s long-term stability—without alienating the Pakistani army.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation this week places new focus on the nation’s uncertain political future and relations with the international community. In a new Q&A on Musharraf’s departure, Frederic Grare assesses how civilian and military relations might change in the aftermath and the implications for the U.S. and Afghanistan.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group can help bring India into the nonproliferation mainstream by imposing conditions on civilian nuclear trade with India or else risk significant damage to itself and the nonproliferation regime.
The newly approved IAEA-India nuclear safeguards agreement moves to consideration by the Nuclear Suppliers Group in late August to early September, but several ambiguities in the language of the agreement continue to make it controversial and it is highly unlikely to secure U.S. congressional approval by year-end.
Decision time has arrived on the controversial nuclear cooperation proposal that was first proposed by President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in July 2005. Because the NSG and IAEA traditionally operate by consensus, any one of a number of states can act to block or modify the ill-conceived arrangement. They have good reason and a responsibility to do so.
Behind the scenes at the G-8 summit, U.S. and Indian officials appear to be moving forward on an agreement that would lift the U.S. ban on nuclear trade with India and allow it to assist India’s civilian nuclear program. Ashley Tellis discusses the details of the deal on NPR’s Morning Edition and notes that it is unlikely to make India a closer U.S. ally.
The next U.S. administration needs a clear strategic vision for Asia befitting the region’s status as the new global “center of gravity.”