Could a president’s overconfidence in U.S. defensive systems lead to deadly miscalculation and nuclear armageddon? Yes. Yes, it could. Last Wednesday, referring to potential American responses to North Korea’s missile and nuclear program, President Donald Trump told Sean Hannity “We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them it’s gonna get knocked out.” If Trump believes — or is being told — that American missile defenses are that accurate, not only is he factually wrong, he is also very dangerously wrong. This misperception could be enough to lead the United States into a costly war with devastating consequences.
Here’s why: If Trump believes U.S. missile defenses work this effectively, he might actually think a first strike attempt to disarm North Korea of its missile and nuclear forces would successfully spare U.S. cities from North Korean nuclear retaliation. They probably wouldn’t. Believing that each ground-based midcourse missile defense (GMD) interceptor can provide anything close to a 97 percent interception rate against retaliation raises the temptation to attempt a so-called “splendid first strike” based on the assumption that missile defenses can successfully intercept any leftover missiles North Korea could then fire at the United States.
In this article, we first lay out the complexity of American missile defenses and explain why it’s way off the mark to believe U.S. ground-based missile defense interceptors are even close to as effective as Trump suggested. We then explain how overconfidence in national missile defense may tempt the president to consider a first strike with no actual guarantee that it can spare an American city — or multiple cities — from potential North Korean thermonuclear retaliation. For a president who has already expressed an inclination to visit “fire and fury” on Kim Jong Un and threatened to “totally destroy” his country, we’re obligated to take Trump’s misplaced confidence in GMD very seriously. His attraction to attempting a first strike will only grow if he is blind to an important gap in U.S. defenses. Not only might he still want to denuclearize North Korea by force, he might think it is actually possible to do so without putting the U.S. homeland at risk.
This article was originally published in War on the Rocks
Comments(1)
Trump signed an executive order. To cut off cost sharing subsidies. Ending payments that help low-income people buy health insurance. Its a spiteful act of vast, pointless Sabotage leveled at working families and the middle class in every coner of America. All because Donald Trump is obsessed with Obama. Now millions of hard- Working American families Will suffer just because Donald Trump wants them to. Republicans are so called still trying to defuse the ticking Obama Care bomb. Is the line they feed you. Without blowing themselves up, and on Thursday the GOP cut the first wire: Donald trump I mean Chump signed an executive order that could. Not (Will ) bein to revive private insurance markets.. He turning it into trump care. Now lets see how you all like this. If you have disabilities or are a senior a women or low income with pre-existing conditions. Get ready to ether die.. Or can't pay.. #Thank #Your #inexperienced. #scumbag. #So-called #President ... NOW! ON TO THE NFL. If you voted for someone who said he prefers soldiers who don’t get captured, who insulted the parents a gold star captain, who said he knew more than the generals, who said he always wanted a Purple Heart, who dodged the draft, and who called the US military a disaster, please don’t you dare pretend that you’re angry at those who kneel during the anthem because it’s disrespectful to our military. Or if you voted for that person because he’s not politically correct and he says what’s on his mind, please don’t tell me that kneeling during the anthem is wrong. Or if you voted for a reality show star because he’s an outsider and not a career politician, please don’t tell me that athletes shouldn’t voice their political views. Or if you voted for him because he cares about the Constitution, please don’t tell me that people shouldn’t exercise their right to free speech. And if you voted for him because, despite his wealth and comfortable life, he was willing to go out there, be made a target, and say what’s really wrong with this country, please don’t tell me that black athletes should just shut up and be grateful to be rich. Be honest with yourself about why you are outraged by this. If you aren’t contradicting yourself, I’ll listen. Otherwise, I can’t... They say our vote is our loudest voice, so if it is contradicting to our outrage, it may be time to rethink some things that go deeper than a simple R or D in a ballet box. (Eminem) Why trump so quiet why hasn't he responded to what Eminem said he responds to everyone else and makes them lose their job which is something he shouldn't do which is punishable by 15 years in prison. His own generals are saying that he's a loose cannon and he shouldn't have access to the nuclear codes he's already hinted at World War 3. What is it going to take for Americans to call for the impeachment of Donald Trump. Trump has never been in the military never been in the army. Never been in a war on the battle field. Never been a mayor a Governor a senator. Nothing he has no qualifications to be president I said this before he was elected. At some point you have to have the job qualifications to do the job. This is the quiet before the storm he says. And apparently a lot of dumb Americans out there love Donald Trump they love the fact that he is in the driver's seat of everyone else's lives. He's going to get us all killed he wants to launch a preemptive strike so bad on North Korea that he doesn't know what to do with himself. He's more obsessed with Obama than Kardashian's are obsessed with black men. He only wants to undo the Iranian nuclear deal because it is something that Obama did. Period Setting the stage for another nuclear out break! Expect North Korea sell nuclear weapons to Iran. All nation say Iran has been in compliance with the deal.. He is Opening Nuclear Pandora's box. #ImpeachTrumpNow! The most mass shooting in America if not all are white men. And still they did not and will not call them Terrorist or profile them. Trump is a Russian sleeper. His wife is by him to make shore. By the time this Russian investigation is over it will be to late!
Comment Policy
Comments that include profanity, personal attacks, or other inappropriate material will be removed. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, steps will be taken to block users who violate any of the posting standards, terms of use, privacy policies, or any other policies governing this site. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.