Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Follow Carnegie
- Search
- Global Resources
Global Centers
Languages
The most important question now facing the world is the use the Bush Administration will make of its military dominance, especially in the Middle East. The next question is when and in what form resistance to US domination over the Middle East will arise. That there will be resistance is certain.
If the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia can reach a basic understanding on how to handle North Korea, the effort to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program and accept a reasonable "more-for-more" agreement, while not easy, should enjoy a reasonable chance of success.
The news that Iran is building a uranium enrichment facility has increased previously existing concerns over Iran's nuclear intentions. Information about the full extent of Iran's current and future capabilities is not known, but enough information has been publicly discussed to provide some background.
In a global context, the Caspian represents another North Sea or Alaska; it is significant, but even full development would not represent a fundamental shift in market dynamics. U.S. policy must be based on a realistic assessment of the global energy situation and the potential role the Caspian can play. Bilateral energy arrangements are no substitute for balanced foreign policy in the region.
Pakistan’s latest experiment in ‘‘controlled democracy’’ is faltering just months after elections and the nomination of a Prime Minister. General Pervez Musharraf does not want parliament to vote on the Legal Framework Order, a decree that he used to amend the country’s constitution. Pakistan’s problem is not the constitution – it is the fact that it is subject to the whims of rulers.
Before the United States can determine whether its gradualist approach to democratic reform in the Middle East is the best remedy, we must first understand how Arab autocracies actually work. In particular, we must understand how the "liberalized autocracies" of the region endure despite frequent prediction of their imminent death.
Within a few years, ten former communist countries are supposed to become members of the European Union (EU). The question immediately arises what this enlargement of the EU will mean to the twelve former Soviet countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The effects will be many and multifaceted, both qualitative and quantitative.
When the end of the Cold War largely eliminated the likelihood of a global thermonuclear war, policymakers turned their attention to the very real danger that weapons of mass destruction could be used in smaller, but still horrifically deadly numbers. Ballistic missiles garnered the most of the attention, though they are only one-and perhaps the most difficult-method of delivery of these weapons.
The latest invasion of Iraq will unleash a new cycle of hatred—unless the United States can find ways to bolster the credibility of moderate Islamic thinkers.