China's announced 18 percent increase in military spending, US consideration of Aegis ship sales to Taiwan and the push for a national missile defense system give new importance to a prescient analysis by Ambassador Chas Freeman at Carnegie in 1999. We present his prescription from that meeting for avoiding heightened tensions with China. Freeman discusses his debate with Chinese officials that gives us both the origin and the true meaning of the famous "Los Angeles" quote.
According to official statistics, output plunged in almost all Soviet-type countries toward the end of communism. In the first year of transition, the plunges turned even more dramatic, continuing for years. The analysis and conclusions in this paper contrast sharply with the conventional view.
In the coming weeks, an army of China experts is going to tell us that selling advanced arms to Taiwan is too risky. If history is any guide, however, it will be even riskier if Beijing thinks it is dealing with another "young and weak" American president.
U.S.-South Korean relations will be put to the test this week as South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung visits Washington. Kim’s recent summit with Russian President Putin produced a joint statement effectively opposing U.S. plans to deploy national missile defenses, complicating President Bush’s first foray into East Asian security affairs.
Secretary of State Colin Powell has called for the easing of U.S. sanctions against Iraqi civilians, while tightening those against the government and military in light of a recent intelligence assessment finding that Iraq may be able to deploy nuclear weapons within three years.
The American public remains deeply skeptical of missile defenses. ABC News reports in a recent poll that "most Americans support the concept in principle, but that support dissipates dramatically in the face of counter-arguments on the price, workability and ramifications of the project."
In Geneva, negotiations have stalled on a verification mechanism for the treaty banning biological weapons. Talks are deadlocked over both the draft text and negotiation procedures. Jenni Rissanen, an analyst at the Acronym Institute, analyzes current obstacles facing the Biological Weapons Convention.
Project Director Joseph Cirincione outlines the three possible outcomes of the new strategic nuclear review ordered by President Bush and describes the conflicts that will shape whatever policy emerges. If done right, the review could help the president implement sweeping arms reductions and negotiate new agreements more effectively than President Clinton.
Bush administration efforts to promote a new national missile defense (NMD) plan have met with skepticism, hostility and uncertainty abroad. The Non-Proliferation Project has gathered recent quotes from the governments and leaders that will determine the outcome of the international debate on NMD. For further resources, visit the Project's resource page on <a href="http://www.ceip.org/files/nonprolif/weapons/weapon.asp?ID=5&weapon=missiledefense">missile defenses</a>.
USAID and the State Department operate under two distinct philosophies on how to promote democracy abroad. USAID underwrites technocratic democracy aid programs and sees democratization as a long-term developmental process. In contrast, the State Department focuses on politicians and political events, not on developmental processes, and wants immediate results.