Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The collapse of centrist parties in Chile’s elections this weekend reflects the demise of the country’s democratic model. Long seen as one of Latin America’s most stable democracies, Chile’s capacity to overcome its polarization could have resounding effects in the wider region.
Yet such promises amount to little more than window dressing meant to assuage international critics. The Brazilian government’s pledges made in Glasgow cannot be taken seriously for a simple reason: they would hurt Bolsonaro’s chances to win re-election next year.
The proliferation of autocrats who love to stage presidential elections is a surprising political phenomenon. What they want is an exercise that gives off the illusion of democracy, but where their victory is securely guaranteed.
The brazenness of Nicaragua’s authoritarian turn sets a troubling precedent and reflects the broader erosion of democracy in Latin America.
"The victory of one of these men, the story goes, would put an end to the destructive polarization that has riven Brazilian politics and help the country heal after an abysmal decade of near-zero growth and worsening inequality."
Polarization within Latin America is inevitably reflected in the polarization of governments in the region. It is not surprising then, that in the last 20 years the Inter-American Democratic Charter Powell signed has not been successfully invoked even when it was flagrantly violated, such as by Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua.
No matter what happens during Brazil’s elections in October 2022, the country’s democracy faces a major test. Democratic backsliding in other countries such as Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela suggests that strongmen are often emboldened by reelection and grow increasingly authoritarian.
The EU should make the most of its economic leverage in Cuba to more deftly balance its engagement with the single-party regime with more outreach to an emerging wave of new civic activists pressing for change.
These are bleak, unpalatable scenarios, but sadly, there are few reasons to expect better. The wishful hope that the criminals in charge of the Venezuelan regime can somehow be persuaded to accede to their own ruin is just that—a hope—and certainly not a proper basis for diplomatic action.
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