Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Tajikistan has no intention of getting into a direct confrontation with the Taliban. Rather, by taking a few more risks than its neighbors, the Tajik leadership is counting on boosting its popularity, both at home and abroad.
China’s global footprint has expanded exponentially in recent years, becoming a source of investment for countries around the world. But notably, many nations have struggled to grapple with the accompanying implications and political risks.
On October 24, Uzbekistan will hold a carefully choreographed presidential election that almost certainly will lead to a resounding win by its President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, a self-proclaimed reformer. Join us for a discussion on Mirziyoyev’s reform agenda and Tashkent’s calculus at home and abroad.
Chinese firms are adapting to an ever-changing business environment as Central Asian leaders and citizens demand more local job creation, value-added industry, and opportunities for skills and advancement.
It goes without saying that the crisis in Afghanistan will create new risks for the region, but Central Asia has long lived with chaos on its borders, and already has twenty years of experience in dealing with the Taliban.
Tajikistan was the only one of Afghanistan’s neighbors that did not engage in talks with the Taliban prior to the militant group’s conquest of most of Afghanistan.
For Kazakhstan, cordial relations with the United States are an important part of its strategy for counterbalancing Russian and Chinese influence.
It was not so long ago that the United States had military bases in the region. But now much depends on whether the advantages would outweigh the inevitable losses that Central Asian countries would sustain as a result of Moscow and Beijing’s displeasure.
The recent escalation did not resemble a local dispute that got out of hand. Dark clouds have been gathering over the region for a long time, and the decision to embark on military action was taken at the highest level.
On April 11, Kyrgyzstan will head to the polls for the third time in six months to vote on a controversial constitutional referendum that would enhance the political power of the president, allow presidents to run for a second term, and push through initiatives designed to weaken the parliament.
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