Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Among Belarusians, trust in the political elite remains low while the perceived effectiveness of EU sanctions is decreasing. The union must keep the latter in mind when assessing its strategy toward the country.
China’s global footprint has expanded exponentially in recent years, becoming a source of investment for countries around the world. But notably, many nations have struggled to grapple with the accompanying implications and political risks.
After Poland’s legal challenge, the European Union is struggling to maintain its integration project. The EU needs to assert its legal authority over Poland and other member states that challenge the rule of law and the EU’s treaty itself.
China’s presence has brought socioeconomic opportunities to Georgia, Greece, Hungary, and Romania. Yet it has exacerbated governance shortfalls, undermined elements of political and economic stability, and complicated the European Union’s ability to reach consensus on key issues.
Belarus is illegally sending migrants to Lithuania and Poland in response to these governments’ outspoken criticism of Lukashenko’s crackdown on the opposition. This cynical strategy is prompting the EU to forge its own short-sighted migration policy.
Putting too much pressure on Belarus right now could backfire and lead to unforeseen consequences. It would appear that Russia understands that, and is therefore playing the long game on integration.
Despite increased threats to civil liberties, judicial independence, and civil society over the past decade, efforts to defend and rethink Europe’s democratic practices have also surged. To maintain this momentum and ultimately reverse democratic erosion, a more ambitious agenda of political reform is required.
It’s unlikely that Zelensky seriously believed that his sharp rhetoric with Merkel and Biden would lead to the West accepting Ukraine into NATO or canceling Nord Stream 2. But his behavior strikes a chord with the public at home.
Despite the lessons of the last three decades, the importance of Ukraine for Russia is still greatly overstated. It’s time to carry out a long overdue reevaluation of that importance.
The German chancellor’s legacy with regard to Russia and Ukraine is mixed, if not contradictory. Still, her successor is unlikely to show the same level of interest, commitment, or clout in their relations with Kiev and Moscow.
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