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The Nuclear Suppliers Group can help bring India into the nonproliferation mainstream by imposing conditions on civilian nuclear trade with India or else risk significant damage to itself and the nonproliferation regime.
With reports that Russian troops remain in Georgia, the West continues its diplomatic push to resolve the conflict. Yet the U.S. and its allies have limited leverage with which to influence Russian policy.
President Bush recently announced the launch of a U.S. humanitarian mission to Georgia and criticized Russia for what he deemed as its violation of the ceasefire. This accusation struck deeply with many Russians who viewed the intelligence on which the speech was based as false or outdated.
The Russia-Georgia crisis has caused a substantial erosion in Russia-U.S. relations. In order to move forward in such a challenging diplomatic environment, the United States should fully support the French initiative to achieve a cease fire.
Disarmament cooperation between Russia and the U.S. has stalled. Negotiations must be renewed, for inaction could revive an arms race.
While the heady days of the so-called Arab Spring of 2005 and the soaring rhetoric of President Bush’s “forward strategy of freedom” are long past, the question of whether and how the United States should promote democracy in the Middle East is still debated. Each of the prospective candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election has, in one way or another, established a position on the issue.
Although a ceasefire has been called by Russia and Georgia, the crisis is far from over. The U.S. could have prevented the conflict had it proactively sought out a solution for Abkhazia and South Ossetia months or years before. In addition, the U.S. should have strengthened its diplomatic relationship with Russia rather than allowing it to deteriorate.
Russia’s aggressive behavior in Georgia will have implications throughout the Caspian Sea Region, forcing Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to rethink their strategic priorities with the West. Russia has reasserted itself as the dominant player in the region and revealed how difficult it is for the U.S. to maintain a strategic position around the Caspian.
With the escalation of violence between Georgia and Russia, and the apparent ceasefire of military operations by Russia, the role of the United States in the build-up and outbreak of the conflict has been largely muted.
Russia’s use of military power to obtain geopolitical objectives in Georgia is reminiscent of strategy pursued by 19th century superpowers to gain resources and power on the international stage. The West must make it clear to Russia that their long-term relationships are at stake if the country does not withdraw its military.
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