12:15 – 2:00 p.m. David Kay, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, and Robert Litwak to speak at Carnegie
A groundbreaking report details what the U.S. and international intelligence communities understood about Iraq's weapons programs before the war and outlines policy reforms to improve threat assessments, deter transfer of WMD to terrorists, strengthen the UN weapons inspection process, and avoid politicization of the intelligence process.
Current US strategy in the "war on terrorism" is a kind of zombie. It has been killed, slowly and painfully, by the Iraqi Sunni Arab insurgency of recent months. Its rotting corpse still walks around as if alive but as time goes by more and more bits are going to fall off. The question for uncommitted European governments is whether they should join this spectacle.
If Iran and North Korea acquire nuclear arsenals, their weapons will present obvious and direct dangers to the United States, its troops, its allies, and regional and global stability.
The following on Iran's WMD capabilities is taken from the CIA's biannual "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions," from January1 - June 30, 2003. This report was released November 10, 2003.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has found that "there is no evidence that the previous undeclared nuclear material and activities ... were related to a nuclear weapons program." Not yet, anyway. Director General Mohamed ElBaradei's report adds that Iran's past "pattern of concealment" means "it will take some time before the agency is able to conclude that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes."
Europe is celebrating the British, French and German foreign ministers' diplomatic coup in Tehran last week. The three foreign ministers succeeded in convincing Iran to agree to suspend uranium enrichment activities and to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, authorizing more intrusive inspections. Most European commentators are hailing this breakthrough as an important achievement for Europe. The Austrian Der Standard called it "the greatest success for European diplomacy in ten years of political union, since the Maastricht Treaty."
On October 21, Iran announced that it would temporarily suspend its uranium enrichment program and sign the Additional Protocol, requiring more robust inspections. Iranian officials declined to specify the duration or form of this suspension. The tougher inspection system would authorize International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to perform spot checks of any suspicious sites, without prior notice. Dr. Rowhani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran would probably sign the protocol before the November 20th IAEA board meeting.