Senior Associates Anatol Lieven and Martha Brill Olcott and Visiting Scholar Shlomo Avineri discuss Russia and the security challenges from the south.
Russia is the one exception to U.S. success in dissuading nuclear cooperation with Iran - success, which includes China and Ukraine, according to Assistant Secretary of State for Non-proliferation, Robert Einhorn. In testimony before a U.S Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on October 5, he blamed Moscow's "lack of determination" in failing to stop Iran's procurement of nuclear materials in Russia.
Iran had its first successful test of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile on July 15. The first test missile in July 1998 exploded shortly after launch. The missile is based on the North Korean NoDong-1, with a range of 1200-1300 kilometers with a one-ton payload. Some cite Iran as a ballistic missile threat justifying deployment of an American national missile defense system. However, Iran remains primarily a regional concern.
There has never been a better time for a new, comprehensive review of the troubled state of the international non-proliferation regime along with credible solutions for today's most pressing proliferation problems. Repairing the Regime, is just such a book.
For some two years there have been public concerns about Russian firms – and perhaps elements of the Russian government – assisting Iran to develop ballistic missiles. Last month Iran conducted the first flight-test of its Shahab-3 missile. Some analysts suspect that Iran is a few years away from fielding the Shahab-4 missile, which could reach most of Egypt and some of Central Europe.
In July 1998, The Carnegie Endowment hosted a Proliferation Roundtable with Joseph Cirincione, Frank Record, Vann Van Diepen, and Richard Speier. The conversation was off the record.
Iran’s growing weapons capabilities already pose a grave risk to U.S. allies and U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf region, but this threat could greatly worsen in coming years, as Iran graduates to even more potent weapons than it currently possesses, enlarges its missile arsenal, builds longer-range systems, and learns to mate its weapons of mass destruction with these advanced delivery systems.