
There is one thing that the war avoiders and the warmongers should be able to agree on: the need to prevent an accidental or unintended conflict between the United States and Iran.

A compelling case could be made for the use of U.S. military force if Iran posed an immediate threat to vital American interests. But as harmful as Iran’s activities in the region may be to the United States and its friends the reality is that Tehran poses no imminent threat to America’s core interests.

Coercive diplomacy—when both elements of the approach are carefully synchronized—can deliver. On the other hand, coercion without diplomacy can lead to huge blunders.

A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.

The Trump administration’s moves might be just saber-rattling, but they could easily propel the United States toward a military confrontation with Iran.

The Trump administration made the choice last May to withdraw from a flawed but still highly functional arms control agreement. A year on, it has not developed an alternative to replace it or turn back Iran’s influence in the region.

Iran is hurting badly from U.S. sanctions. And no one should rule out the possibility of an Iranian move to engage Washington. But right now, neither the United States nor Iran seems interested in serious negotiations.

Stuck in the present and with no viable perspective for positive change, Iranian citizens feel powerless.

A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.

Neither leader appears to want escalating conflict—yet that’s precisely where things seem to be headed.