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There was a fundamental mismatch of expectations between the United States and Iran over what a comprehensive deal would entail when the interim nuclear deal was reached in November 2013.
The fundamental dilemma of Moscow’s policy lies in whether it is worth cooperating to achieve a comprehensive agreement with Iran, which would primarily be a success for the United States, under conditions of confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
Even if the gaps in diplomacy appear quite large, there’s no great alternative to a continuation of negotiations with Iran.
Iran can enrich uranium to its heart’s content, but without Russian cooperation that won’t translate into fuel supply security for Bushehr.
If Iran, the United States and the others could agree to pre-stock fuel for Bushehr and focus Iran’s enrichment program on research and development, it would be in everyone’s interest to extend the negotiations on this basis.
While an Iran with nuclear weapons would be a serious incalculable factor for Moscow to have to deal with on its southern flank, it’s also likely that Moscow sees the nuclear threat posed by Iran as less dramatic than the United States and the EU powers do.
The EU needs to look beyond nuclear negotiations and develop a comprehensive strategy for dealing with Iran.
The European Union has established its own set of sanctions that go beyond the measures agreed to by the United Nations. If a comprehensive nuclear agreement is reached, Europe must find a way to sensibly lift those sanctions.
For Tehran, the Syrian conflict is at the center of an ideological, sectarian, and geopolitical struggle against a diverse array of adversaries.
Transparency doesn’t factor into the IAEA’s routine work in Iran, which is mostly about monitoring and verifying the accounting of declared materials and activities. Instead, it’s a battleground in the IAEA’s efforts to arrive at a holistic picture of Iran’s nuclear history.
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