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Expectations for diplomacy with Iran have gotten out of hand in some quarters, abetting political polarization over this issue which has increased the possibility that a final accord with Iran will not come about or succeed.
A number of complex questions remain unresolved as negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program enter their final stage. The main question is whether the cooperation between Russia and the West would continue at the previous levels in the midst of the crisis in Ukraine.
The beginning of 2014 has already yielded important developments in nuclear policy circles. Iran and the P5+1 held talks, questions were raised about tensions between Moscow and Western powers, and North Korea threatened a fourth nuclear test.
Washington hopes to foster a new and improved relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but that may be a distant dream. Enmity between the two rivals runs deep.
Russia should not treat the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan as a potential disaster for its security in the south. Nevertheless, the coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan will force Russia to take more responsibility for regional security.
The June 3 Syrian vote is unlikely to radically change or improve the situation in the country. Rather, Bashar al-Assad’s re-election may only worsen it.
Iran and the P5+1 are unlikely to reach an agreement on Iran’s controversial nuclear program by July 20, but a partial accord is possible by the end of the year.
Saudi Arabia and Iran seem to be on their way towards rapprochement. This can only be bad news for Bashar al-Assad.
While asserting that Tehran will not surrender its right to nuclear development in upcoming talks with world powers, Iran’s President Rouhani did say that his country would be ‘transparent’ in negotiations over the disputed program.
Until Iran and all the other governments currently fanning the flames of war in Syria have accepted that no peace plan can work without a critical mass of armed actors on both sides, Syria’s slow collapse into Somalia-style anarchy will continue.
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