Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Having declined to join Western sanctions against Russia, Turkey has become the only remaining window to Europe for Russian companies and individuals.
It’s an indication of major fractures, as emerging states leverage digital technology and sophisticated weaponry to compete for influence and power.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
The war with Russia has forced Kyiv to take a more realistic view of Turkish foreign policy. Ukraine no longer views its relationship with Turkey as part of its partnership with the West.
Turkey’s positioning as the antithesis of European values, as well as its relationship with Russia, should raise questions about Ankara’s presence in the proposed European Political Community. The EU must not abandon its own principles and convictions in the name of realpolitik.
In an increasingly unpredictable global environment, expect Turkish foreign policy to be just as elusive.
Though Turkey remains on good terms with Russia, it still finds itself in the throes of an energy crisis.
Turkey’s upcoming elections help to explain why Recep Tayyip Erdogan is thinking of rekindling ties with Syria.
Ankara’s relationship with Moscow is becoming directly linked to his bid to win the Turkish elections in 2023. Meanwhile, a disruptive Turkey within NATO and President Erdogan’s continued balancing act with the Kremlin offer Putin a strategic advantage.
Both Moscow and Ankara are benefiting from Turkey’s mediating role since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strategically, however, Putin has the upper hand.