Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Trump has correctly put the North Korea crisis at the top of the international agenda, but on almost every other aspect of Crisis Management 101, he is failing the course—and the consequences could be deadly.
To reduce danger, we need less bombast and better communication.
The United States needs to reconsider its objective of denuclearizing North Korea and its demand for denuclearization before dialogue in order to solve the North Korea dilemma that it faces.
Amid escalating tensions, South Koreans have begun voicing their concerns about a nuclear-armed North Korea-and debating bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons back to the Korean peninsula.
Washington and Pyongyang will eventually need to resume direct talks. With neither party ready for that yet, at first secret contacts will have to be organized in third countries. In the meantime, de-escalation is the order of the day, and Russia one of its unlikely brokers.
Two veteran diplomats deeply involved with the last set of intense negotiations with North Korea will discuss their experiences and consider options in light of today’s dynamics, and will be joined by both U.S. and Japanese experts.
For a new nuclear state like North Korea, questions concerning strategic implementation abound.
Deterring North Korea is less risky than a preventative war.
Policymakers should adopt a more realistic focus on deterring Pyongyang from using its nuclear weapons rather than pursuing low-probability attempts to denuclearize the peninsula in short order.
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal exists to stop other countries’ quest for regime change in Pyongyang.