Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
2013 witnessed new levels of threatening behavior from North Korea and recent perturbations among the North Korean leadership also raise the possibility of greater instability and unpredictability. What will 2014 bring in terms of North Korean nuclear behavior?
The United States must confront the uncomfortable reality that China’s economic and military might may eventually rival or even surpass its own.
There have been many events in Asia in 2013. But some of them stand to impact the most the global policy and security in 2014.
Eurasia Outlook returns in 2014 and in the months ahead it will focus on the issues that are likely to shape the future of Eurasia.
Washington’s changing posture in the Pacific has deep roots and reflects the need for a new perspective on managing potential rivals.
In 2013, Europe was a peaceful place, but elsewhere in Eurasia, things were not as peaceful. This eventful year promises an interesting 2014.
North Korea seems to have adopted a new approach to nuclear diplomacy. In contrast to its threatening rhetoric and nuclear test earlier this year, Kim’s policy is increasingly characterized by alternating hard and soft edges and inconsistent decisionmaking.
China has a unique opportunity to play a leading role in convincing North Korea that it has little to lose and much to gain from giving up its chemical weapons arsenal.
Ideally, the parties will be able to return to the Six-Party Talks framework one day with all countries genuinely working toward the central goal of North Korea’s denuclearization. But the prospect of that happening anytime soon looks increasingly remote.
The complex interplay of domestic politics and regional diplomacy involving the Korean Peninsula creates a high-stakes “Two-Level Game.”