A discussion on global proliferation dangers based on the new Carnegie study, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats.
Words matter. When Deadly Arsenals hits the streets on July 12 (just slightly ahead of the new Harry Potter book) it will no longer use the expression “weapons of mass destruction.” The phrase confuses officials, befuddles the public, and justifies policies that more precise language and more accurate assessments would not support.
There are signs that the Six Party talks between the United States, North Korea, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia on North Korea’s nuclear program could soon resume. But holding talks while North Korea continues to expand its nuclear capabilities is like negotiating with a gun to your head.
Jessica Mathews plays director of national intelligence in Atlantic-sponsored war game.
As painful experience in Iraq, North Korea, Libya and Iran has shown, the rules that govern nuclear exports, safeguard nuclear materials, and control and eliminate nuclear weapons are not self-enforcing. States and international agencies must struggle to mobilize the power needed to enforce and adapt these rules as conditions change.
In order to be successful, threat reduction programs must take into account the opinions of decisionmakers in recipient countries, as well as the lessons learned from threat reduction programs already in place.
The North Korean Nuclear Challenge: Is There a Way Forward?
Amidst bold declarations among the regimes in North Korea and Iran, last week was a bad one for nuclear nonproliferation.
It is now two years since North Korea withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty and since Pyongyang restarted its plutonium production program. The results of efforts by South Korea, China, Japan and particularly the United States have failed to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and are now little but an empty shell of a policy. 2005 will be a difficult year.
The new UN report, "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility," addresses emerging threats of the 21st century. It identifies erosion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the stagnation of disarmament efforts, illicit nuclear trafficking, and the potential threat of nuclear terrorism major crises of the nonproliferation regime as. The report proposes a multi-layered response to these threats.