Chinese diplomats and scholars are optimistic that a Trump-Kim Jong Un summit will successfully happen. However, U.S. national security professionals in China and in the U.S are concerned about the various long-term interests of all those involved.
If the Trump-Kim summit stays canceled, and saber-rattling returns as the dominant mode of communication, the odds of military crisis will rise dramatically.
As the United States, North Korea, South Korea, and China make moves to tilt the outcome of the Trump-Kim summit in their favor, time is running out to prepare for any real outcomes in Singapore.
As a possible Trump-Kim summit draws closer, join Carnegie for a conversation about what negotiating with North Korea actually entails. Previous U.S. negotiators will talk about what lessons have been learned in previous rounds of talks, and what the United States should know going forward. The New York Times’ Mark Landler will moderate.
The chance to end North Korea’s test program should be seized and, if successful, could form the basis for expanding direct contact and trust between Washington and Pyongyang, while expanding the global norm against nuclear testing.
North Korea openly seeks nuclear-armed ICBMs capable of threatening the United States. Its precise military requirements for such a weapon are, however, unknown.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s faulty assumptions and unrealistic expectations could doom prospects for peacefully deescalating one nuclear standoff—and applying these misguided lessons to Iran could manufacture yet another.
Despite the positive nature of the joint statement by the Korean leaders pledging to make progress on long-standing problems, the reality is that there is much hard work to do if the U.S.-North Korean summit is to be a success and lead to real progress.
Kim Jong-un became the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea at the Panmunjom Summit in April 2018, setting the stage for President Trump’s meeting with Kim in June, which China will be watching closely.
Unless the United States changes its priorities, Korean diplomacy is probably doomed.