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Egypt’s generals appear to have calculated that, for a number of reasons, Washington will not suspend military assistance and that, if it does, this is a bearable cost in order to achieve other more immediate, and important, interests.
The real question facing Egypt has to do with the role of Islam in public life and who speaks for Islam in public life, which is ultimately more of a political conflict than a religious one.
Egypt’s de facto ruler, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, seems to indicate a readiness to negotiate a way out of the country’s crisis, but only on his terms. Mubarak is gone, but his police state is coming back.
The international community will likely be confronted soon by an Egyptian regime that looks very much like the present one but can present a democratic facade.
Morsi’s soft approach to security in the Sinai alienated the Egyptian military and provided another reason for them to support the opposition.
Members of Congress have begun to call for cuts in the $1.5 billion in military aid given to Egypt each year, as political violence increases in the country.
Suspending the delivery of some or all of the $1.3 billion in annual aid that the United States sends to the Egyptian government would only further reduce the limited influence Washington has over the Egyptian military.
With the political process in Egypt taking a violent turn, negotiations between the Brotherhood and the new regime are weakening.
Unrest in Egypt could provide room for violent Islamist groups to reemerge, although these groups face organizational challenges likely to prevent a repeat of the 1990s’ insurgencies.
Much of the Egyptian population now embraces the very military it seemed bent on ejecting from power during the 2011 revolution. What's the reason for the about-face?
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