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Egypt’s counterterrorism tactics remain ineffective in the face of increasing violence in Sinai.
Voting could deepen existing divisions in Egypt if the United States pressures the country into elections before the Egyptians have healed the conflict within the country.
Egypt’s new rulers have to make a decision on whether they want an open democratic system. They can either have the Muslim Brotherhood on board or chose to crush them, and thus far they have been sending signals in both directions.
The most immediate concern for Egypt’s liberals and the U.S. government is the possibility of the Muslim Brotherhood abandoning politics and resorting to street violence if they are not reassured that their voices will be heard.
Many Egyptians consider the question of whether or not Morsi’s ousting was a military coup more a matter of moral judgment than terminology, but U.S. lawyers will have to figure out if recent events trigger a mandatory cutoff of aid.
The demonstrations may be larger this time, but Egyptian society is far more divided than it was during the revolution two years ago. It is essential for the transition to be inclusive.
Analysts are currently poring over the language of U.S. law to see whether the United States is now obligated to cut back aid to Egypt because what has just taken place there can hardly be defined as anything other than a military coup.
It would be wise for those who are now victorious in Egypt to remember that the issue is not only what the Brotherhood learns from the ousting of President Morsi; the issue is also what Islamists are taught.
Mundane procedural problems were the Achilles heel of the 2011 transition, and now the body that made all those mistakes, the Egyptian military high command, has delivered a new road map.
The events of June 30 demonstrate that without a strong alternative to a military dominated state or one co-opted by the Muslim Brotherhood, unrest will continue.
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