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The fact that Morsi’s victory was allowed to stand marks a major change in Egypt, but it is only one step in a process of transformation that will take time, be punctuated by many acrimonious battles, and in the end may not lead to democracy
The developments in Egypt over the past few days have thrown what had been a confused set of institutional arrangements into even greater disarray and threatened the already tenuous transition to democracy.
The recently revised Constitutional Declaration, written by the military, outlines the powers of the Egyptian presidency in a way that gives ultimate authority to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.
The Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court’s recent decisions allowing members of the old regime to run for office and striking down a section of the parliamentary election law puts an end to the first phase of the Egyptian transition and is a clear victory for the old regime.
Although the full ramifications of the rulings by the Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court are not yet evident, they suggest that democracy—in the sense of majority rule with minority rights—is now losing badly in Egypt.
The maneuvering surrounding the formation of the Constituent Assembly may reduce the influence of Islamists in the process, but it will do so by curbing democratic practices.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are likely to have little influence over the final outcome of the Arab Spring. Instead, the course of political transformation across the Middle East will be determined by domestic actors.
Because the array of Egyptian courts will likely have more to say on transition issues, a brief guide to the judicial cast of characters is useful.
With the State Council, Parliament, the Supreme Constitutional Court, and the oncoming presidency all vying for political power, Egypt's transitioning democracy is marked by confusion, sectarianism, and an underlying fear of the old regime.
No matter who the new Egyptian president is, he will face a daunting challenge: defusing the country's looming fiscal crisis. What options will he have, and where will the money come from?
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