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Early polling in Egypt suggests that Islamist movements are receiving the bulk of the vote, but both the country and the Muslim Brotherhood might be better served by an outcome like Tunisia’s, where Islamists have political strength but must still reach out to others to get anything done.
Analysts of the Arab Spring should be cautious when invoking historical analogies to explain recent events in the Middle East and North Africa.
The most challenging part of the change to civilian government in Egypt lies ahead—the country's road to democracy is far from guaranteed.
The current uprisings taking place across the Middle East and North Africa are interconnected; the success or failure of one country’s democratic transition could have a direct impact on the prospects for transition in another.
The Egyptian military has emerged as the most serious threat to the transition to democracy; ten months after helping ease Mubarak out of office, SCAF announcements leave no doubt that it intends to maintain its control indefinitely.
The Egyptian transitional government's reactive economic measures are placing added pressure on an already unsustainable budget deficit. Combined with the maintenance of economically inefficient subsidies, the long-term implications of continued poor economic policymaking could be severe.
The United States should remain on the sidelines as Arab countries devise new constitutions. While Washington can provide technical assistance if requested, it should allow constitution writing in the Arab world to be an indigenous process.
Unless the Islamists and liberals can find a way to coexist in Egyptian politics, Egypt risks falling into a new authoritarianism, with the military and the liberals undermining the democratic process to prevent Islamist participation.
While reforming education in the emerging democracies of the Middle East may prove more challenging than political democratization, without it, the future of democracy will remain tenuous at best.
If successful, the Tunisian elections could provide a model for other countries in the region that are experiencing political transitions.
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