Until the Arab governments undertake security sector reform, the Arab Spring countries—and others that have experienced post-conflict transition, such as Iraq—risk lapsing into new, hybrid forms of authoritarian rule and descending into ever-widening civil strife.
The Arab transformations have only just begun. The coming year will offer signs as to whether countries of the Arab world are heading toward or away from democracy and pluralism.
To participate effectively in the political process, new, largely secular parties must overcome their institutional challenges and improve their long-term capacity to deliver what the people need.
No noticeable progress has been made in dealing with the key economic factors that ignited the Arab uprisings. The cost of inaction may be huge if these countries fail in their transitions and slide into violence and extremism.
Ennahda has sought to engage Tunisia’s Salafi groups, but that approach has only undermined the party’s authority amid growing violence.
Political violence, civil disobedience, and terrorism are threatening Tunisia’s political transition. Government and opposition forces must work together to avoid a crisis.
In the midst of Tunisian unrest, Ennahda is struggling to address persistent legal, economic, and security issues at the root of popular discontent.
In the aftermath of Morsi’s ouster, Muslim Brotherhood offshoots across the region seek to distance themselves from the “mother” organization—yet they all face the same fundamental challenges.
Despite the rise of extremist threats, moderate Salafi groups have a unique opportunity to play a constructive role in Tunisia’s future.
The politicization of justice issues in post-Ben Ali Tunisia threatens to obstruct the transition process.