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Through various policies of the Bush administration, the United States lost a considerable amount of international authority. Amidst a system of rising powers, this could have grave consequences for global stability. However, the future depends on the Obama administration’s efforts to regain American authority.
Major upcoming elections in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq and, perhaps, Palestine, could alter the balances of power in these countries. Because each is at the heart of various arenas of conflict in the Middle East, 2009 could witness a series of political jolts in region.
No matter how long U.S. troops stay in Iraq, a stable power-sharing agreement will emerge only after all factions have tested each other’s strength and exhausted their desire to fight. Leaving Iraq is the right thing to do, for the U.S. and for Iraq.
The growing strength and assertiveness of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has alarmed Iraq’s neighbors and the Baghdad government. If ignored or badly handled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to ignite violence and instability in Iraq and the region at a particularly delicate time.
The invasion of Iraq has surfaced long-suppressed nationalist aspirations among the Kurds. If ignored or mishandled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to ignite violence and instability in Iraq and the region.
The recent crisis in Gaza, upcoming Israeli elections, and Iraq’s provincial elections are reshaping the political landscape in the Middle East and providing new opportunities for Europe and the United States to play a constructive role.
Moqtada al-Sadr's attempts to keep attention on the United States and to associate his political rivals with it reveal his concerns about remaining relevant in Iraqi politics.
Fifteen million Iraqis are expected to turn out to vote in upcoming provincial elections. While the distribution of power between the Shiite and Sunni will not change, there is the possibility that elections may redistribute power among Shiite and Sunni organizations.
Barack Obama's election was celebrated throughout the Middle East. But enthusiasm could quickly turn to hostility if the new administration does not back up its rhetoric with concrete changes to U.S. Middle East policy on three key issues: Palestine, Iraq, and political reform.
Arab regimes that have long been friendly to the United States are increasingly reluctant to follow Washington’s lead on any issue. They are not enemies of the United States, but they are not faithful allies, either. Rather, they follow the policies they believe best protect their interests, regardless of what the United States wants.
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