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Many issues will force themselves onto the new administration’s Middle East agenda. This commentary will only focus on security in the Arabian Gulf in view of Iran’s nuclear program and Obama’s exit strategy from Iraq. For 30 years the Gulf region has been volatile for two reasons: the imbalance of military power, which is the result of strictly political factors, and the U.S. military presence.
What President-elect Obama has to know is that he won overwhelming support not only in the United States but also in the Arab world, where people embraced him with equal enthusiasm. What does President Obama need to do in order not to disappoint Arabs? The answers focused on three issues: Palestine, Iraq, and political reform.
Provincial elections in January 2009 will provide insights into the health of Iraq's political system and the shifting balance of power among political parties and factions.
President-elect Obama’s administration must not give any inkling that Iraq is becoming less important to Washington if it wants to shore up real but fragile gains in Iraqi stability.
The burst of diplomatic activity that the Middle East has witnessed in recent months frequently deviated from Washington's policy guidelines, underscoring the decline in American influence in the region.The new U.S. administration will need a new and more constructive approach to handling the various issues of the Middle East.
A U.S. withdrawal plan for Iraq that creates a political vacuum will invite Iraq's neighbors to shape the nation's internal evolution in accordance with their own security considerations. The U.S.-Iraq deal for combat troop withdrawal by 2011 lacks a much needed political strategy for neutralizing the influence of Iraq’s neighbors.
Seasoned diplomats are leaving the State Department in droves, leaving America critically short on diplomatic expertise just when it is needed most.
Saudi Arabia’s increasing use of unconventional, “soft” measures to combat violent extremism is bearing positive results, especially its rehabilitation program, which officials claim enjoys an 80-90% success rate. The Saudi approach is now serving as a model for the US military as it deals with insurgent detainees in Iraq.
2007 witnessed a "notable setback for global freedom." Some of this is the fault of the Bush administration, whose policies have given democratization a bad name. At the same time, new democracies have not figured out how to secure their new political systems beyond their first elections. Some democratization advocates wonder whether democracy has reached its global limits.
Iraq has reached a political plateau. The U.S. troop surge has stopped the downward spiral in sectarian violence, allowing politics to move in a different direction. There are least three processes to watch: the on-going struggle for power among various parties and groups, recent state building efforts, and the cohesion of the four-party (two Shi’i and two Kurdish) coalition currently in power.
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